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A mere eight weeks in the past when the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery berated him over not reading a through-ball. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were a symptom or a cause of the side's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, however, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. After the England international swept in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Serious Challengers?

It remains a particularly tough proposition to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.

According to the data, on just two occasions has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team who have put together a ten-match winning streak, they look strangely fragile – but right now the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping Rogers to rescue them with some clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.

The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa must confront in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.

• The main striker may begin to scoring again.
• The attacking talent might become the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.

This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.